2013-09-23

The people have spoken ... sort of

Isn't that what one says when there have been elections? "The people have spoken." Yesterday was Germany's turn to speak out, or speak up, or however it is that they are allowed to present themselves. I can't say that there's anything really surprising about the outcome, and I certainly can't see where there is going to be any monumental change on the horizon.

As it turns out Merkel and her CDU are, unsurprisingly, the strongest faction in the Bundestag with 41.5% of the vote. She is followed by the SPD (25.7%), the Linke (8.6%), and the Greens (8.4%). No one else, including the former coalition partner, the FDP (which failed to make the Bundestag for the first time), the Pirate Party and the remaining fringe parties.

Considering the fact that the two largest, so-called "people's parties" (Bürgerparteien) ran content-free campaigns (not a single issue was addressed on campaign posters or advertisements; the candidates were what was being "sold"), it is somewhat surprising that they garnered a total of 67%; that is, two-thirds, of the popular vote. Pre-election polls showed that "most" Germans were looking for a Grand Coalition, and they may have got their wish. Apparently, that many German voters are either satisfied with how things are or how their party is or they simply like the face of the person running. This is disconcerting for me, of course, because this is precisely how campaigns are run in the United States, and it's clear, at least to me, that they don't have a democracy anymore. This does not bode well for the future of Germany in particular, or Europe in general, for this malady will surely spread.

On the other hand, the one glimmer of hope still is that there is something of a leftist majority in the country. When we take the SPD, the Greens (a former spin-off from the SPD) and the Linke (the Leftists, who in part split off the SPD and which part lent credibility to the former East German faction) together, we see that there is a fairly strong majority to be had. Together they account for 42.7% of the vote. Unfortunately, the "established" parties (which surprises me about the Greens since they only achieved this status on their own around 15 years ago), don't want to have to deal with the Linke, whom they consider politically unacceptable. Truth be told, however, at 8.6% (even suffering some light losses) they are the third strongest party in the country (I don't count the CSU as a party since it's strictly Bavarian). Sooner or later, perhaps, the will of the people needs to be considered again. As it has been demonstrated, Germany's heart, at least, beats on the left.

It may appear to many, especially outsiders and Angie would like us all to think so, that Germany is doing well (which means that there are any number of people who think it's too well), but there are number of crucial issues that need to be addressed: income inequality, equal pay for equal work, the social safety net, an aging population, European unity, banking regulation, the euro, and more. It cannot simply plod on as before thinking that everything is just fine as it is. It isn't, and, if we take the numbers seriously, of those who voted, more than 58% did not vote for the party that will propose the next government. And, as far as all (potential) voters are concerned, a full 70% did not vote for it either. To claim a rousing victory under these circumstances is to turn a blind eye to reality and your back on those whom you have been elected to serve.

Yes, the people have spoken, sort of, and the pundits will spin the results beyond all belief, yet the real proof of the election pudding will be in the eating when policy is formed and laws are passed. I'm going to reserve judgment for later, but my initial impression is that not a whole lot is going to change. Merkel needs a coalition partner and she will most likely try to get the one she can dominate best, which would be the Greens. In that case, we'll hear more about renewable energy, but we won't see more of it. Merkel also knows that generally speaking the people wanted a Grand Coalition, but that would mean work, on her part and on the SPD's part, but given the emptiness of their campaigns, I doubt a whole lot can be expected. No, if you ask me -- and I know you didn't but you read this far so you get to read it anyhow -- our slow, painful, unjust and unnecessary decline will continue among resounding repeititions of how good things are.



No comments: