The fate of empires

A former British general and diplomat, John Bagot Glubb, wrote a somewhat dated (because of its language and cultural framework), but certainly not outdated (due to it's conceptual content) article a while back that dovetails well with what I wrote about last time. It's entitled "The Fate of Empires". It's been long out of print, but can be found on the Internet in more than one place, just in case you're interested. As the title implies, Glubb takes a closer, but still strategic look at eleven empires the world has experienced over the past 3,000 years to see if they have anything in common, and it turns out they do, so let me summarize the most salient points of his analysis for you:

1. We do not learn from history because our approach to it is fragmented (focused on brief time periods) and parochial (these days, nation-centered).
2. The lifespan of an empire is about 250 years, or approximately 10 generations in human terms.
3. They all go through the same six "ages", as Glubb calls them: the Ages of Pioneer, Conquests, Commerce, Affluence, Intellect, and Decadence.
4. The Age of Decadence (of most particular interest to us) is marked by a number of factors, including defensiveness (actually, too much military), pessimism (the feeling that things are going to end badly anyway), materialism, frivolity and the welfare state ("bread and circuses"), an influx of foreigners, and a weakening of religion.

Glubb does use examples from the empires he analyzed to support these conclusions, and I have to admit, even though he has rather archaic notions of "race" (whereby he actually means civilization or culture, for the most part), "foreigners" (anyone who is "not us"), and "sense of duty", he takes great pains to point out that it is not any single feature or factor that brings about the fall of an empire and no one and nothing is better than anyone or anything else, only different. In all cases, the structure, the pattern, and the results are always the same.

For Glubb, and I agree with him here, the reason for the decline and fall is, in my words, simply become fat, dumb and happy and would rather be entertained than do anything about the seemingly inevitable crash. That is, Glubb believes that if we actually understood history, in the broader, strategic sense that he is trying to point out, we could counteract what only appears to be the path of inevitability. This isn't like our own lifespans or the shifting of the seasons, this is a matter of taking action to, stated in more lighthearted terms, finally break a bad habit.

Perhaps he's right, but I can't help but think that we may already be past a point of no return. Is this just another example of end-of-empire pessimism on my part. Perhaps, but it could be that some things just may be so broken that they can't be fixed anymore. While reading Glubb, I couldn't help but feel he was talking about the United States. After all, it's pretty easy to see how applicable his analysis is to our own situation.

You don't agree? You think we're somehow different? Well, let's take a closer look at it all. Next time.